Archive for the 'Democrats' Category

Feb 26 2008

Samantha Power and the Obama Campaign


Via Normblog, a rather disappointing Sunday Times interview with the very intriguing Samantha Power.Power’s an interesting character. She’s a strong human rights advocate who doesn’t fall into any easy ideological categories. Her opposition to the invasion of Iraq distinguishes her from both the hawkish elements within the current US administration who use the language of human rights to cloak a rather more base military adventurism and the Nick Cohen-ite ‘muscular liberals’ so comprehensively ridiculed in the always brilliant Encyclopedia of Decency. However, she’s by no means a pacifist and her support for military intervention in certain cases puts her at odds with much of what might loosely be described as the broad-left anti-war movement.

Power’s 2002 book A Problem from Hell: America in the Age of Genocide is a compelling and illuminating piece of work which analyses the evolution of the international community’s understanding of genocide as a distinct crime, and the responses of various US administrations to it throughout the 20th century. The material on the Kurds is particularly good, specifically in detailing the internal politics driving the State Department’s response to the Anfal campaign.

Her new book, Chasing the Flame, is a biography of Sergio Vieira de Mello, the senior UN diplomat most notable for overseeing the transition of the then East Timor to independence and for his death at the hands of jihadists in a car bomb attack on the UN headquarters in Baghdad in August 2003. Even prior to his death Vieira de Mello was a fascinating figure and was profiled in Paul Berman’s Power and the Idealists as one of a number of soixante-huitards (the others including Joshka Fischer and Bernard Kouchner) who came to a difficult accomodation with the defence of human rights and the need for humanitarian interventionism in the 40 years since the riots of the summer of ‘68. Berman’s review of Power’s book can be found here:  ironically, his main criticism of the work

But the biggest difficulty, or so my reading of Chasing the Flame leads me to suppose, is a problem of the imagination. A philosophical issue. It’s the same problem that keeps popping up in Power’s earlier book as well: an inability to imagine why some people might set out to destroy whole populations. Vieira de Mello participated in U.N. missions that followed any of several logics—the logic of peacekeeping, or of establishing safe havens for the persecuted, or of providing humanitarian aid. But each of those logics presumes that if horrific conflicts have broken out, it is because otherwise reasonable people have fallen into misunderstandings and a neutral broker like the U.N. might usefully intercede. Yet conflicts sometimes break out because one or another popular political movement has arrived at a sincere belief in the virtue of exterminating its enemies, and horrific ideologies lie at the origin. Neutral mediations in a case like that are bound only to obscure the reality—which has happened several times over, as Power usefully demonstrates.

is precisely the aspect of Berman’s own writing which is the weakest. Particularly in Terror and Liberalism, but also elsewhere, he has a tendency to move from relatively well-considered fact-based arguments to vague theorising about ideology - in particular about the ‘irrationality’ of certain ‘death-cults’ - which isn’t really supported by convincing evidence and which one suspects is only thrown in to allow Berman to make spurious analogies between Fascism, Stalinism and (for want of a more accurate term) Jihadism.

While Chasing the Flame isn’t published (this side of the Atlantic) until next week, I hope it will examine in some detail how possible the post-invasion reconstruction of Iraq was at the time of Vieria de Mello’s death. Recent books like Imperial Life in the Emerald City and The Occupation suggest that the reconstruction efforts were always doomed to failure, due to the, at best, incompetence and, at worst, criminal and deliberate negligence of the Coalition Provisional Authority. However, what the argument that the current morass in Iraq was the inevitable and unavoidable outcome of the invasion doesn’t consider is what might have happened had the initial reconstruction effort been headed up by the United Nations rather than Paul Bremer and co. It’s something of a pointless debate, of course: we have no real way of knowing what might have happened had things been otherwise, and it certainly doesn’t assist in considering a possible solution to the present situation. However, it’s an argument worth having, to inform future questions of military intervention (however unlikely these may be in the short term).

What’s so disappointing about the Sunday Times piece, though, is that there’s so little in it. Power’s close involvement with the Obama campaign certainly cause me to pay closer attention to his campaign (although her somewhat star-struck descriptions of him in the interview do tend to grate). However, nowhere in the article is the question of what US foreign policy under an Obama administration might look like, particularly in the area of human rights and humanitarian intervention. That said, her presence is still something to keep an eye on in the course of the campaign and certainly if Obama manages to win the Democratic nomination and becomes an actual Presidential candidate.

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Feb 07 2008

Whither America?

For those hoping that Super Tuesday would provide some clear blue or red water between the candidates in the Democratic and Republican nomination races respectively, the events of this week will have proved somewhat of a disappointment.

On the Democratic side, things are closer than ever. I must admit that when I saw Hillary Clinton's fortunes reverse towards the positive in New Hampshire after the Iowa hiccup, I thought the 'Billary' machine had cranked up enough momentum to leap ahead of the the rookie Senator Barack Obama. As it turned out, Clinton bagged eight states on Super Tuesday, including California and New York, with Obama winning in 13. At the moment, the results mean that Hillary has 845 delegates and Barack sits with 765- the goal is 2,025 to be sure of nomination.

In the Republican field, John McCain has stretched out a lead over his more right-wing rivals. However, it's still too early for the Vietnam veteran to ascertain the number of his proverbial poultry before they have exited their shelled homes of infancy. That said, he now has an estimated 613 delegates for the Republican convention compared with Mitt Romney's 269 and Mike Huckabee's 190- each is aiming for 1,191 delegates to secure nomination as the Republican candidate for the White House race. Huckabee is refusing to rule himself out of the running, having won a number of southern states on Super Tuesday, meaning his ongoing involvement is arguably causing a split in the conservative vote, allowing the more centrist McCain to sail past.

The Republicans' 'winner takes all' approach has also helped McCain- for instance he won all of New York's 101 delegates when he topped the poll in the Empire State- whereas the Democrats favour a more proportionally representative system, making it more difficult for contenders to establish clear leads.

In the event that neither Clinton nor Obama can establish a clear lead over their rival, it may rest with the unpledged delegates at the Democrats' convention, i.e. those who are free to choose who to support such as senior party officials and state governors, to decide who should run. In that case, who is picked to be the Democratic nominee will come down to who the hierarchy believe is most likely win the national presidential election.

Super Tuesday? Hardly.

Update: Mitt Romney, who bankrolled his own campaign with millions of dollars to become President, has pulled out of the race, effectively leaving the way clear for McCain to be the Republican nominee.

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Jan 04 2008

Whither The American Presidential Race?

There was somewhat of a shock last night in Iowa when Democratic Presidential hopeful Barack Obama comfortably defeated his Democratic rivals in the state caucuses. Indeed, Obama secured 37.6 per cent of the Democratic vote, with John Edwards winning 29.7 per cent and Hillary Clinton surprisingly being shunted into third place with 29.5. Despite a mammoth national campaign and massive financial backing for her candidacy, the former President's wife lagged considerably behind her younger and more dynamic rival.

Meanwhile, on the Republican side, unfortunately right-winger Mike Huckabee won with 34.3 per cent. He was followed by the Mormon ex-Governor of Massachusetts Mitt Romney who secured 25.3 per cent of votes. Other Presidential hopefuls including John McCain and Rudy Giuliani didn't bother to campaign in Iowa, instead deciding to focus on the bigger states.

Of course, the Iowa caucuses are just the first step towards the White House- they have no bearing on how other states will go in terms of the candidates they back. However, it certainly is interesting to see how well Obama did. There may be problems ahead for the man who hopes to be America's first black President though, with southern states possibly being more likely to back Clinton or Edwards. Meanwhile, when it comes to states where the other Republican candidates come into their own, it will be interesting to see how it affects the support levels of Huckabee and Romney. Interesting times ahead.

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